18 September 2014

Voter Registration in the USA: September 2014

Voter Registration in the USA: September 2014
as compared to 2010 (and just for fun: to GE 2012)


I have completed a fourth major study of voter registration in the USA. Well, „completed“ is not accurate, for the stats are constantly changing. Rather, I can now provide a very reliable snapshot of one point in history and compare it as best as possible to the same time-frame four years ago and also to the GE 2012. These are the RV statistics for the Union in September 2014. I will be updating this data from now until GE 2016 every six months or so and posting a new report each time. For that is the entire idea – to follow and note changes in the electorate in the time leading up to the next GE.

Because of Federalism, there is no standard system in the USA for recording statistics pertaining to elections (voter registration, voter turnout, election results) according to any criteria. This makes getting information about Voter Registration somewhat of an adventure, and also, because not all states have -or publish- voter registration by party affiliation, it is impossible to come up with complete partisan statistics for the Union.

It gets even more adventurous as many State SOS or BOE or Governor's or Lt. Governor's websites are constantly moving data into archives and former links then go defunct. Different states have different ways of terming things, but the end result is just the same. Whether a state calls is a „registered voter database“, a „voter registration file“ or „roll of voters“, it all means the same thing. Some states publish only the number of voters registered, while others publish them by partisan affiliation. Some publish VR stats only by number and race and/or gender an/or age. Some states publish VR stats every week, others every month, others once quarterly, others only per election, etc. So, it's a mixed bag, to say the least.


What I have done is to research the websites for all 50 states plus DC and included links to all the current VR totals in this excel document containing 10 tables:

1.) Complete Table. (complete raw data for everything)

Feel free to go to the table and first check out the stats for your own state. That link above was to the first tab, you can click on the other 9 tabs at the bottom.

For convienience, here are the links to the other tabs:


5.) Partisan affiliation - descending by DEM %.
6.) Partisan affiliation - descending by GOP %.
7.) Partisan affiliation - descending by "other" %. ("Other" means splitter parties)
8.) Partisan affiliation - descending by unaffiliated %.
9.) Partisan affiliation - margin edge D-R, in hourglass form.
10.) Partisan affiliation - margin edge R-D, in hourglass form.

There is also another document with tons of links to many things, including details as to how each state records things, which you can read as an EXCEL TABLE in google docs. So, actually, there are two huge documents, both of which are helpful.

And everything is linked at the tables.


Hard facts:


Currently, there are 183,037,283 registered voters in the USA plus DC. There were 183,821,274 registered voters at the time I did this analysis last in December, 2013. This means that there are currently 783,993 LESS people registered to vote than at the end of December, 2013, but it is very possible that there will be a last minute rush to register right before the 2014 midterms, which is why I will definitely be updating this analysis at the beginning of November and then again, at the end of December in this year.

Now, we know that from day to day, people are coming on and off the rolls all over the place via death, moving, coming of voting age, etc.,  but those things generally cancel each other out and daily changes on the national level would then be pretty micoscopic. So, it is fair to say that right now, 183 million are registered.


Of those 183,821,274111,301,204 (60.81%)  registered voters come from the 31 states plus DC that provide VR statistics by partisan affiliation. In December, 2013, that statistic was 61.08% of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged.

The other 71,736,079 (39.19%) registered voters come from 17 states that do not provide VR statistics by party affiliation, but rather, publish a VR total. That statistic was 38.92% of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged.

The picture will always be somewhat incomplete as ND has no voter registration at all and MS provides no VR stats. Also, Alabama's latest stats are still from the GE-2012, there, my hands are tied.

In 2011, this report showed ca. 177.8 million registered voters, so the off-year rolls have grown somewhat, by about 6.5 million, with the population of the USA.



Here is a map of the US, broken down by states that publish VR by party affilation vs. those states that don't:




Of the states that do VR by party affiliation, here is the national breakdown:

State VR DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar %
TOTAL partisan 43773224 31996439 3777481 31754060 111301204 39,33% 28,75% 3,39% 28,53% 11776785 10,58%
TOTAL non-partisan



71736079





GRAND TOTAL



183037283







Nationally, the Democratic party has a +10.58% registration edge among registered voters in the 31 states that publish tallies according to party affiliation (down from +12.03% in 2011 and also slightly down from +11.01% in 2013).

Of the 31 states that publish VR by partisan identification, the Democratic Party has a partisan edge in 21 states and the GOP has a partisan edge in 10 states. However, The Democratic party has an absolute majority (including rounding) in registration in just 6 states:

State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Mar % State VR % of total
DC 08/2014 75,87% 6,13% 1,15% 16,85% 69,73% DC 08/2014 0,25%
MD 07/2014 60,46% 28,01% 0,80% 10,73% 32,46% MD 07/2014 1,85%
KY 08/2014 53,60% 38,72% 2,18% 5,50% 14,88% KY 08/2014 1,71%
WV 08/2014 49,76% 28,80% 2,34% 19,10% 20,96% WV 08/2014 0,67%
NY 04/2014 49,73% 23,59% 6,06% 20,62% 26,15% NY 04/2014 6,45%
PA 09/2014 49,62% 36,75% 0,57% 13,06% 12,87% PA 09/2014 4,50%

Those 6 states account for 15.43% of all registered voters in the USA at this time. Notice that 4 of those six states are from the Northeast and 2 are from the Mason-Dixon zone and those two are generally considered very "red" states, at least on the national level. More on this later.

The GOP has an absolute majority in registration in 1 state:

State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Mar % State VR % of total
WY 09/2014 19,93% 66,38% 0,87% 12,83% 46,45% WY 09/2014 0,14%


As you can see, that one state accounts for 0.14% of all registered voters in the USA at this time.

The Unaffiliated voters (you can read that as independent) have an absolute majority in 4 states:


State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Mar % State VR % of total
OH 12/2013 8,86% 15,75% 0,08% 75,31% 6,89% OH 12/2013 4,21%
AK 09/2014 13,94% 26,91% 4,69% 54,46% 12,97% AK 09/2014 0,27%
MA 08/20/2014 35,42% 10,95% 0,52% 53,10% 24,48% MA 08/20/2014 2,33%
RI 08/2014 38,99% 10,04% 0,26% 50,70% 28,95% RI 08/2014 0,41%

This is interesting to note in light of the fact that in spite of an NO AFFILIATION majority in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the Democratic Party still has a massive voter registration edge over the Republican Party. Reason: the Republican party VR represents only 10% of each of those states. Likewise, in Alaska, although The NO AFFILIATEDs are the majority, the GOP has a large edge on the Democratic Party. Reason: the Democratic Party is only about a quarter of the state. All three of those states are historically known to go with landslide margins, at least at the presidential level, for the party (D/R, R/D) that has the edge, which means that the unaffiliated voters in Rhode Island and Massachusetts definitely have a different voting tendency than the unaffiliated voters from Alaska. So "unaffiliated" does not mean the same thing in every state. Ohio is a special case all on it's own. See: bottom of this report.

The majority RV looks like this on a map:






The map above DOES NOT necessarily represent the voting tendencies of those states, it only represents which major party has an absolute majority in VR.


The following states are plurality states:

In these 15 states, the Democratic Party does not have the majority of registered voters, but it does have an RV edge over the Republican party:

State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % % of total
RI 08/2014 38,99% 10,04% 0,26% 50,70% 217173 28,95% 0,41%
MA 08/20/2014 35,42% 10,95% 0,52% 53,10% 1042782 24,48% 2,33%
DE 09/2014 47,61% 28,07% 0,00% 24,32% 125418 19,55% 0,35%
LA 09/2014 46,98% 27,76% 25,26% 0,00% 558117 19,23% 1,59%
CT 10/2013 36,76% 20,10% 0,91% 42,24% 361928 16,66% 1,19%
NM 09/2014 46,75% 31,23% 3,05% 18,96% 198930 15,52% 0,70%
CA 06/2014 43,41% 28,42% 7,02% 21,16% 2656060 14,99% 9,68%
NJ 09/2014 32,88% 19,79% 0,08% 47,25% 716147 13,08% 2,99%
NC 09/2014 41,99% 30,55% 0,38% 27,09% 750972 11,44% 3,59%
OR 07/2014 38,46% 30,47% 7,68% 23,39% 170452 7,99% 1,17%
NV 08/2014 40,83% 33,29% 6,52% 19,36% 110004 7,55% 0,80%
ME 06/2014 31,94% 27,09% 3,96% 37,02% 47752 4,85% 0,54%
FL 08/2014 38,95% 35,10% 2,95% 22,99% 455140 3,85% 6,45%
OK 01/2014 44,75% 43,17% 0,00% 12,07% 31280 1,58% 1,08%
IA 09/2014 31,21% 31,16% 0,25% 37,38% 1204 0,06% 1,16%


Those 15 states account for 34.03% of all registered voters in the USA at current. The DEM VR edge in Iowa is so slim that it is statistically a tie. More about Iowa below. In 9 of those 15 states, the Democratic Party has a double-digit edge over the GOP, but notice that Louisiana, a state that has become deep-red, at least in national politics and more and more in state and local politics, is in that category.


In these 9 states, the Republican Party does not have a majority of registered voters, but it does have an VR edge over the Democratic party:

State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Mar % State VR % of total
UT 09/2014 9,46% 44,80% 1,22% 44,52% 35,33% UT 12/2013 0,81%
KS 07/2014 24,33% 44,11% 0,73% 30,84% 19,78% KS 07/2014 0,95%
NE 05/2014 31,16% 48,30% 0,44% 20,10% 17,15% NE 05/2014 0,63%
AK 09/2014 13,94% 26,91% 4,69% 54,46% 12,97% AK 09/2014 0,27%
SD 09/2014 33,96% 46,32% 0,49% 19,24% 12,36% SD 09/2014 0,28%
OH 12/2013 8,86% 15,75% 0,08% 75,31% 6,89% OH 12/2013 4,21%
AZ 08/2014 29,09% 34,58% 0,84% 35,49% 5,48% AZ 08/2014 1,77%
NH 01/2014 27,20% 30,08% 0,00% 42,73% 2,88% NH 01/2014 0,48%
CO 08/2014 30,87% 31,55% 1,37% 36,22% 0,68% CO 08/2014 1,96%



Those 9 states account for 11.36% of all registered voters in the USA at present. As was the case with Iowa on the Democratic side, in the state of Colorado, the RV edge is so slim that it is actually statistically a tie between the two parties. In terms of partisan make-up (D-R-Unaff), those two states are very, very similar to each other.

I used to also make sure to note the states that have an unaffiliated plurality (or majority) and also an edge over both major parties, but the results of at least the last 4 presidential elections have shown that unaffiliated voters tend to vote strongly for one major party or the other, often according to geography, so I think that statistic is pretty moot.

Going back to the map from above, using lighter shades of the same colors (Blue, Red) to represent pluralities next to majorities in RV and using Gold for the states that do not do VR by Party ID, here is how it looks:







Again, the map above DOES NOT necessarily represent the voting tendencies of those states, it only represents which major party has an absolute majority or a plurality over the other major party in VR.

For a better overview, here is the complete table, in hourglass form, of these 31 states:



State VR DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Mar %
DC 08/2014 75,87% 6,13% 1,15% 16,85% 69,73%
MD 07/2014 60,46% 28,01% 0,80% 10,73% 32,46%
RI 08/2014 38,99% 10,04% 0,26% 50,70% 28,95%
NY 04/2014 49,73% 23,59% 6,06% 20,62% 26,15%
MA 08/20/2014 35,42% 10,95% 0,52% 53,10% 24,48%
WV 08/2014 49,76% 28,80% 2,34% 19,10% 20,96%
DE 09/2014 47,61% 28,07% 0,00% 24,32% 19,55%
LA 09/2014 46,98% 27,76% 25,26% 0,00% 19,23%
CT 10/2013 36,76% 20,10% 0,91% 42,24% 16,66%
NM 09/2014 46,75% 31,23% 3,05% 18,96% 15,52%
CA 06/2014 43,41% 28,42% 7,02% 21,16% 14,99%
KY 08/2014 53,60% 38,72% 2,18% 5,50% 14,88%
NJ 09/2014 32,88% 19,79% 0,08% 47,25% 13,08%
PA 09/2014 49,62% 36,75% 0,57% 13,06% 12,87%
NC 09/2014 41,99% 30,55% 0,38% 27,09% 11,44%
OR 07/2014 38,46% 30,47% 7,68% 23,39% 7,99%
NV 08/2014 40,83% 33,29% 6,52% 19,36% 7,55%
ME 06/2014 31,94% 27,09% 3,96% 37,02% 4,85%
FL 08/2014 38,95% 35,10% 2,95% 22,99% 3,85%
OK 01/2014 44,75% 43,17% 0,00% 12,07% 1,58%
IA 09/2014 31,21% 31,16% 0,25% 37,38% 0,06%






OH 12/2013 8,86% 15,75% 0,08% 75,31% 6,89%
AK 09/2014 13,94% 26,91% 4,69% 54,46% 12,97%
NH 01/2014 27,20% 30,08% 0,00% 42,73% 2,88%
CO 08/2014 30,87% 31,55% 1,37% 36,22% 0,68%
AZ 08/2014 29,09% 34,58% 0,84% 35,49% 5,48%
KS 07/2014 24,33% 44,11% 0,73% 30,84% 19,78%
UT 09/2014 9,46% 44,80% 1,22% 44,52% 35,33%
SD 09/2014 33,96% 46,32% 0,49% 19,24% 12,36%
NE 05/2014 31,16% 48,30% 0,44% 20,10% 17,15%
WY 09/2014 19,93% 66,38% 0,87% 12,83% 46,45%



This can seem confusing and almost counter-intuitive as there are states with majority or high plurality DEM registered voters (WV, KY, LA, OK), but with a GOP voting history. Nonetheless, studying VR by party affiliation can be VERY helpful when we compare the statistics to the past.

There is another factor that makes this all difficult to quantify perfectly: states have different ways of enrolling and de-enrolling voters

-Some states have active and inactive voter lists, some do not. 
-Some states require their citizens to re-register between the primary season and the GE, others do not. 
-Some states automatically take you off the rolls if you do not vote in the primary. 
-Some states have drive-by registration (NC), others have same day registration. 

It can also take some time to remove a voter from the rolls when that person moves or dies. In terms of uniformity and because of Federalism, this part of it all, quite frankly, is a mess.

But there are some comparisons that indeed can help: before a presidential or mid-term election, voter registration tends to spike throughout the Union. This is normal, for many voters who are not so-called „base“ voters (stalwart partisan voters) will register quickly and make their choice for President and more base voters will enroll for the mid-terms. Indeed, some citizens vote only for president and leave the rest of the ballot blank. We can prove this by looking at voter statistics from the presidential elections and see that many more votes were cast for President in this or that state than were cast for Governor or Senator. It is rarely -if ever- the other way around. Conversely, these voters tend to fall off the rolls in the off-years (the 1st and 3rd years of a presidential term). That being said, comparing 2014 to 2010, and also to 2012 can tell us some important things.

  1. It can tell us if there has been growth or decline over the last four years in terms of enrollment.
  2. It can tell us if the partisan mix has radically altered over the last four years.
  3. And, in a beauty contest with the GE-2012, it can tell us how much partisan strength has remained since the GE, but this data is statistically inconclusive.

I am not saying in any way that VR is a predictor of elections. Indeed, WV, KY, LA and OK prove that partisan registration does not necessarily translate to votes at the ballot box for one party or another. In the cases of WV, KY, LA and OK, we are with great certainty talking about Conservative Democrats who are more in line with the Republicans on a number of issues but have maintained their former party status, or former Democrats who have long become Republicans but never took the time to officially change their party status. 

However, VR studies in conjunction with knowing the electoral history of a state can give us an excellent idea where that state stands and if battleground tendencies are present. Here are examples:

Category I: absolute „Locks“.



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
WY 2011 46488 141822 819 20969 210098 22,13% 67,50% 0,39% 9,98% 95334 45,38% -20,14%
WY 2006 67246 162952 452 32433 263083 25,56% 61,94% 0,17% 12,33% 95706 36,38%
Diff: -20758 -21130 367 -11464 -52985 -3,43% 5,56% 0,22% -2,35% 372 9,00%













WY 2011 46488 141822 819 20969 210098 22,13% 67,50% 0,39% 9,98% 95334 45,38% -13,60%
WY 01/2008 65264 149736 900 27271 243171 26,84% 61,58% 0,37% 11,21% 84472 34,74%
Diff: -18776 -7914 -81 -6302 -33073 -4,71% 5,93% 0,02% -1,23% -10862 10,64%













WY 01/2012 46552 142564 848 21815 211779 21,98% 67,32% 0,40% 10,30% 96012 45,34% -12,91%
WY 01/2008 65264 149736 900 27271 243171 26,84% 61,58% 0,37% 11,21% 84472 34,74%
Diff: -18712 -7172 -52 -5456 -31392 -4,86% 5,74% 0,03% -0,91% -11540 10,60%













WY 01/2013 58541 179337 2448 38336 278662 21,01% 64,36% 0,88% 13,76% 120796 43,35% -1,32%
WY 01/2009 72568 168449 1473 39901 282391 25,70% 59,65% 0,52% 14,13% 95881 33,95%
Diff: -14027 10888 975 -1565 -3729 -4,69% 4,71% 0,36% -0,37% -24915 9,40%













WY 09/2014 52345 174383 2281 33699 262708 19,93% 66,38% 0,87% 12,83% 122038 46,45% 1,20%
WY 01/2010 65758 156036 1346 36449 259589 25,33% 60,11% 0,52% 14,04% 90278 34,78%
Diff: -13413 18347 935 -2750 3119 -5,41% 6,27% 0,35% -1,21% -31760 11,68%













WY 09/2014 52345 174383 2281 33699 262708 19,93% 66,38% 0,87% 12,83% 122038 46,45% 24,05%
WY 01/2012 46552 142564 848 21815 211779 21,98% 67,32% 0,40% 10,30% 96012 45,34% 0,00%
Diff: 5793 31819 1433 11884 50929 -2,06% -0,94% 0,47% 2,53% -26026 1,12%

With a massive GOP +46.45% registration edge, Wyoming is the most GOP friendly state in the Union. It has also widened its partisan margin considerably since 2006 (similar to CA, see below).

Wyoming's electoral history tells a similar story: It has gone for the Republican candidate for President for 15 of the last 16 election cycles, back to 1952, and with the exception of 1992, with double digit margins. It was John McCain's strongest state in 2008 and unseated UT as the most republican state in the Union, based on „performance“ on that night (McCain +32.24%). It was Romney's second strongest state in 2012, after his home state of UT, which climbed back to the top of the Conservative partisan rankings.

Wyoming's congressional delegation is entirely Republican. The Governor and Secretary of State are Republican. The Wyoming House of Representatives  and Wyoming Senate  are overwhelmingly republican. Put bluntly, there are not enough Democrats in this state to even make a dent in the vote, except in a possible three man race (see 1992: Bush 41 - Clinton – Perot).

Wyoming's VR has jumped considerably since the 2012 GE.



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
DC 03/2011 348309 30365 5804 75062 459540 75,80% 6,61% 1,26% 16,33% 317944 69,19% 16,73%
DC 03/2007 289980 30601 6431 66669 393681 73,66% 7,77% 1,63% 16,93% 259379 65,89%
Diff: 58329 -236 -627 8393 65859 2,14% -1,17% -0,37% -0,60% 58565 3,30%













DC 03/2011 348309 30365 5804 75062 459540 75,80% 6,61% 1,26% 16,33% 317944 69,19% 7,68%
DC GE-2008 321027 30465 5929 69340 426761 75,22% 7,14% 1,39% 16,25% 290562 68,09%
Diff: 27282 -100 -125 5722 32779 0,57% -0,53% -0,13% 0,09% 27382 1,10%













DC GE-2012 363418 30908 5764 83572 483662 75,14% 6,39% 1,19% 17,28% 332510 68,75% 13,33%
DC GE-2008 321027 30465 5929 69340 426761 75,22% 7,14% 1,39% 16,25% 290562 68,09%
Diff: 42391 443 -165 14232 56901 -0,09% -0,75% -0,20% 1,03% 41948 0,66%













DC 10/2013 355744 29131 5240 79798 469913 75,70% 6,20% 1,12% 16,98% 326613 69,50% -2,84%
DC GE-2012 363418 30908 5764 83572 483662 75,14% 6,39% 1,19% 17,28% 332510 68,75%
Diff: -7674 -1777 -524 -3774 -13749 0,57% -0,19% -0,08% -0,30% -5897 0,76%













DC 10/2013 355744 29131 5240 79798 469913 75,70% 6,20% 1,12% 16,98% 326613 69,50% 13,66%
DC 10/2009 312855 28503 5416 66675 413449 75,67% 6,89% 1,31% 16,13% 284352 68,78%
Diff: 42889 628 -176 13123 56464 0,03% -0,69% -0,19% 0,85% 42261 0,73%













DC 08/2014 341764 27630 5168 75907 450469 75,87% 6,13% 1,15% 16,85% 314134 69,73% 3,16%
DC 08/2010 328903 29603 5728 72435 436669 75,32% 6,78% 1,31% 16,59% 299300 68,54%
Diff: 12861 -1973 -560 3472 13800 0,55% -0,65% -0,16% 0,26% 14834 1,19%













DC 08/2014 341764 27630 5168 75907 450469 75,87% 6,13% 1,15% 16,85% 314134 69,73% -6,86%
DC GE-2012 363418 30908 5764 83572 483662 75,14% 6,39% 1,19% 17,28% 332510 68,75%
Diff: -21654 -3278 -596 -7665 -33193 0,73% -0,26% -0,04% -0,43% -18376 0,99%

A mirror image of WYDC is an absolute Democratic lock, with a massive DEM +69.73% registration edge. It, like WY, has widened its partisan margin over 2006, by roughly +4

Since its inclusion in the Electoral College in 1964, DC has gone for the Democratic candidate for president every time, and with a blowout margin no less than a whalloping +56.54% (1972, for McGovern in the Nixon landslide re-election). Barack Obama set a percent-and-margin record for DC in 2008: Obama +85.92%, the largest margin for any candidate since 1944 (Roosevelt, MS, Roosevelt +87.12%). DC does not have a congressional delegation, but its mayor is a Democrat and the DC council is overwhelmingly Democratic. DC has the highest partisan registration for one party in any „state“ in the nation. Put bluntly, there are not enough Republicans in DC to even make a dent in the vote. No Republican candidate for President since 1964 has campaigned in DC, if ever.

However, in contrast to Wyoming, DC's VR has shrunk by 6.86% since 2012. That being said, 1.7 times more people are registered in DC, which is not a state, than Wyoming, which is. The state with the next highest DEM VR edge is Maryland, with +32.46.


In the cases of both WY and DC, the voter registration, registration trends and voter history all indicate that they are 100% locks for their respective party.

Category II: stong partisan edge, strong unaffiliated percentage

Rhode Island:



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
RI 06/2011 283581 70905 411 337516 692413 40,96% 10,24% 0,06% 48,74% 212676 30,72% 34,43%
RI 06/2006 217859 55869 129 241234 515091 42,30% 10,85% 0,03% 46,83% 161990 31,45%
Diff: 65722 15036 282 96282 177322 -1,34% -0,61% 0,03% 1,91% 50686 -0,73%
INFO from RI SOS 06/16











RI 06/2011 283581 70905 411 337516 692413 40,96% 10,24% 0,06% 48,74% 212676 30,72% 17,52%
RI GE-2008 248312 62180 151 278551 589194 42,14% 10,55% 0,03% 47,28% 186132 31,59%
Diff: 35269 8725 260 58965 103219 -1,19% -0,31% 0,03% 1,47% 26544 -0,88%













RI GE-2012 299006 77175 1196 355483 732860 40,80% 10,53% 0,16% 48,51% 221831 30,27% 24,38%
RI GE-2008 248312 62180 151 278551 589194 42,14% 10,55% 0,03% 47,28% 186132 31,59%
Diff: 50694 14995 1045 76932 143666 -1,34% -0,02% 0,14% 1,23% 35699 -1,32%
Info from RI SOS 12/09/2013











RI 12/2013 290963 74536 1650 366972 734121 39,63% 10,15% 0,22% 49,99% 216427 29,48% 5,65%
RI 12/2009 287427 72801 183 334432 694843 41,37% 10,48% 0,03% 48,13% 214626 30,89%
Diff: 3536 1735 1467 32540 39278 -1,73% -0,32% 0,20% 1,86% 1801 -1,41%













Info from RI SOS 09/11/2014











RI 08/2014 292511 75338 1945 380341 750135 38,99% 10,04% 0,26% 50,70% 217173 28,95% 12,88%
RI 08/2010 276690 68871 335 318633 664529 41,64% 10,36% 0,05% 47,95% 207819 31,27%
Diff: 15821 6467 1610 61708 85606 -2,64% -0,32% 0,21% 2,75% 9354 -2,32%













RI 08/2014 292511 75338 1945 380341 750135 38,99% 10,04% 0,26% 50,70% 217173 28,95% 2,36%
RI GE-2012 299006 77175 1196 355483 732860 40,80% 10,53% 0,16% 48,51% 221831 30,27%
Diff: -6495 -1837 749 24858 17275 -1,81% -0,49% 0,10% 2,20% -4658 -1,32%


RI is the state with the third highest DEM registration edge - a blowout +28.95%, but in this case, the unaffiliated voters make up a majority of the state (50.70%). In 2013, RI had the second highest DEM VR edge, but since then, Maryland has overtaken our Union's smallest state in that statistic.

Rhode Island's electoral history tells a similar story: it has gone for the Democratic candidate for President for 11 of the last 15 cycles, back to 1952, and in 17 of the last 21 cycles, all the way back to 1928. Both Nixon and Reagan captured RI in their re-elections, but with single digit margins, ditto Eisenhower in his first election in 1952. Eisenhower's 1956 re-election was the only time in the last 84 years that a Republican won this state with a double digit margin (Eisenhower +16.52%, 1956). The congressional delegation from RI is completely Democratic. The Governor is an Independent (Chafee, a former liberal republican), the SOS is a Democrat, the Rhode Island Senate and Rhode Island House of Representatives  are both overwhelmingly democratic. RI and MA have long traded 1st and 2nd places for the most Democratic state in the Union (excluding DC), ala WY, OK and UT for the Republicans.

RI is a good example of a state with an unaffiliated plurality but such a large partisan edge, in this case a Democratic registration edge, plus a demonstrable tendency on the part of the unaffiliateds to vote Democratic in the election, so that this state is very much a „lock“ for the Democratic Party. With only 10.04% GOP registration here, the Republicans must practically sweep the entire table with the unaffiliated vote in order to win statewide. Specifically, they need more than 82% of the unaffiliated vote in order to come over 50%, assuming the normal small voter swaps between parties at election time.

That being said, the DEM VR edge in RI has shrunk by 2.50 point, in small increments, since 2006. However, the GOP percentage of the overall VR has shrunk, which can only mean that the unaffliated voters in this state continue to grow, slowly but surely.

Oh, and a friendly shout-out to the RI SOS, which is always very helpful in sending me VR data!!

Utah:

Utah is a great counterpart to RI, and fun to analyze as it just officially switched to VR by party-identification in 2012/2013:



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
UT 2010



1530574 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00% #DIV/0!
UT 2006




#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!
Diff:



1530574 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
0 #DIV/0!













UT 2010



1530574 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00% 0,97%
UT GE-2008



1515856 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00%
Diff:



14718 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00%













UT GE-2012 *



1283526 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00% -15,33%
UT GE-2008



1515856 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00%
Diff:



-232330 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
0 0,00%
*at the moment, active only











UT 12/2013 140702 658544 11641 672318 1483205 9,49% 44,40% 0,78% 45,33% 517842 34,91% -18,90%
UT 11/2009** 153799 655479 37185 982394 1828857 8,41% 35,84% 2,03% 53,72% 501680 27,43%
Diff: -13097 3065 -25544 -310076 -345652 1,08% 8,56% -1,25% -8,39% 16162 7,48%
**direct from the Ut Lt. Govs office
























UT 09/2014 140033 662848 18040 658737 1479658 9,46% 44,80% 1,22% 44,52% 522815 35,33% -19,09%
UT 11/2009** 153799 655479 37185 982394 1828857 8,41% 35,84% 2,03% 53,72% 501680 27,43%
Diff: -13766 7369 -19145 -323657 -349199 1,05% 8,96% -0,81% -9,20% 21135 7,90%
**direct from the Ut Lt. Govs office












Here we see that the GOP has a massive +35.33% VR edge over the Democratic Party but is not majority party. In fact, the unaffiliateds, as in the case of RI, have the plurality edge. And, as is the case in RI, but now in reverse colors, the Democrats have only about 10% registration.

Wyoming has an identical voting history to Wyoming, but in 9 of the last 13 presidential cycles, was the most Republican state in the nation according to partisan rankings. You have to go back 54 years in time, to 1960, to find a Republican presidential nominee win the state with less than a double-digit margin. It is a +30 to +40 state on the presidential level, and as is the case with RI, but again in reverse colors, Democratic candidates do not even campaign in this state.

The Governor, both Senators, the entire congressional delegation to the US HOR are all Republicans. Both houses of the Utah State Legislature have Republican hypermajorities.

Also a friendly shout-out to the Utah Lt. Governor's office for their help in providing older VR data for this state!



Category III: 3-way even split


Iowa:



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
IA GE-2012 695652 672797 2617 795473 2166539 32,11% 31,05% 0,12% 36,72% 22855 1,05%
IA GE-2008 736244 624830 121 782470 2143665 34,35% 29,15% 0,01% 36,50% 111414 5,20%
Diff: -40592 47967 2496 13003 22874 -2,24% 1,91% 0,12% 0,21% -88559 -4,14%













IA 2010 Mid-Term 701214 647381 1933 765642 2116170 33,14% 30,59% 0,09% 36,18% 53833 2,54%
IA GE-2008 736244 624830 121 782470 2143665 34,35% 29,15% 0,01% 36,50% 111414 5,20%
Diff: -35030 22551 1812 -16828 -27495 -1,21% 1,44% 0,09% -0,32% -57581 -2,65%













IA 12/2013 668672 652960 3514 797878 2123024 31,50% 30,76% 0,17% 37,58% 15712 0,74% 0,54%
IA 12/2009 723392 610051 1543 776614 2111600 34,26% 28,89% 0,07% 36,78% 113341 5,37%
Diff: -54720 42909 1971 21264 11424 -2,76% 1,87% 0,09% 0,80% -97629 -4,63%













IA 12/2013 668672 652960 3514 797878 2123024 31,50% 30,76% 0,17% 37,58% 15712 0,74% -2,01%
IA GE-2012 695652 672797 2617 795473 2166539 32,11% 31,05% 0,12% 36,72% 22855 1,05%
Diff: -26980 -19837 897 2405 -43515 -0,61% -0,30% 0,04% 0,87% -7143 -0,31%













IA 09/2014 664819 663615 5413 796061 2129908 31,21% 31,16% 0,25% 37,38% 1204 0,06% 1,30%
IA 09/2010 699707 645606 1702 755513 2102528 33,28% 30,71% 0,08% 35,93% 54101 2,57%
Diff: -34888 18009 3711 40548 27380 -2,07% 0,45% 0,17% 1,44% -52897 -2,52%













IA 09/2014 664819 663615 5413 796061 2129908 31,21% 31,16% 0,25% 37,38% 1204 0,06% -1,69%
IA GE-2012 695652 672797 2617 795473 2166539 32,11% 31,05% 0,12% 36,72% 22855 1,05%
Diff: -30833 -9182 2796 588 -36631 -0,90% 0,10% 0,13% 0,66% -21651 -1,00%


For all intents and purposes, this is an absolute tie between the two major parties. It just doesn't get much more even than that, which means that candidates in Iowa are absolutely dependent on swinging the majority of the unaffiliated vote in order to have a chance to win. And Iowa is a truly politically divided state in terms of current representation. The Governor is Republican, the Senators are split 1D/1R, the congressional delegation to the HOR is split 2D/2D and the Iowa General Assembly is split, with the Democrats in control of the State Senate and the Republicans in control of the State House. 

In presidential politics, Iowa is a 6-for-7 Democratic state, having gone for the Democratic nominee for President every time since 1988, save 2004, when it chose President George W. Bush (43). But both 2000 and 2004 were razor-thin margins in Iowa, it could have gone either way both times. Iowa is a perfect example of a state where the presidential nominee MUST convince the unaffiliated voters that he (or she) is the better candidate. In the upcoming 2014 mid-term elections, had Democratic Senator Tom Harkin decided to go another six years, he would likely have won another term quite handily. With his decision to retire, this race between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst ist wide-open and could go either way.

Iowa, politically speaking, but not necessarily demographically speaking, is a microcosm of the Union as a whole.

Colorado:



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
CO 06/2011 1070365 1082805 27968 1138175 3319313 32,25% 32,62% 0,84% 34,29% 12440 0,37% 17,97%
CO 05/2007 855005 995897 11710 951191 2813803 30,39% 35,39% 0,42% 33,80% 140892 5,01%
Diff: 215360 86908 16258 186984 505510 1,86% -2,77% 0,43% 0,49% 128452 -4,63%













CO 06/2011 1070365 1082805 27968 1138175 3319313 32,25% 32,62% 0,84% 34,29% 12440 0,37% 3,40%
CO GE-2008 1056077 1065150 19525 1069497 3210249 32,90% 33,18% 0,61% 33,32% 9073 0,28%
Diff: 14288 17655 8443 68678 109064 -0,65% -0,56% 0,23% 0,97% -3367 0,09%













CO GE-2012 1151918 1157373 43687 1293987 3646965 31,59% 31,74% 1,20% 35,48% 5455 0,15% 13,60%
CO GE-2008 1056077 1065150 19525 1069497 3210249 32,90% 33,18% 0,61% 33,32% 9073 0,28%
Diff: 95841 92223 24162 224490 436716 -1,31% -1,44% 0,59% 2,17% 3618 -0,13%













CO 11/2013 1109635 1122931 43496 1287701 3563763 31,14% 31,51% 1,22% 36,13% 13296 0,37% 11,13%
CO 11/2009 1058785 1048669 20501 1078896 3206851 33,02% 32,70% 0,64% 33,64% -10116 -0,32%
Diff: 50850 74262 22995 208805 356912 -1,88% -1,19% 0,58% 2,49% -23412 0,69%













CO 11/2013 1109635 1122931 43496 1287701 3563763 31,14% 31,51% 1,22% 36,13% 13296 0,37% -2,28%
CO GE-2012 1151918 1157373 43687 1293987 3646965 31,59% 31,74% 1,20% 35,48% 5455 0,15%
Diff: -42283 -34442 -191 -6286 -83202 -0,45% -0,23% 0,02% 0,65% -7841 0,22%













CO 08/2014 1107600 1132035 49024 1299533 3588192 30,87% 31,55% 1,37% 36,22% 24435 0,68% 10,11%
CO 08/2010 1070449 1073865 23744 1090696 3258754 32,85% 32,95% 0,73% 33,47% 3416 0,10%
Diff: 37151 58170 25280 208837 329438 -1,98% -1,40% 0,64% 2,75% -21019 0,58%













CO 08/2014 1107600 1132035 49024 1299533 3588192 30,87% 31,55% 1,37% 36,22% 24435 0,68% -1,61%
CO GE-2012 1151918 1157373 43687 1293987 3646965 31,59% 31,74% 1,20% 35,48% 5455 0,15%
Diff: -44318 -25338 5337 5546 -58773 -0,72% -0,19% 0,17% 0,74% -18980 0,53%

Colorado, like Iowa, is all tied up between the two major parties in VR and interestingly enough, the statistics are extremely close to each other: In Iowa it's D31/R31/Unaff 37, which in Colorado, it's D31 / R 31.5 / unaff 36, with more splitter party (3rd party) action. And in terms of representation, this once very Conservative bastion is less split than Iowa: the Governor is Democratic, both Senators are Democratic, but the Republicans have a majority in the congressional delegation to the US HOR, 4 to 3. In the Colorado General Assembly, the Democrats control both the State Senate (18/17) and the State House of Representatives (37/28). 

On the presidential level, Colorado was not really a swing-state, or major battleground, until 2008, but the evidence of Colorado moving from a double-digit win state to a single-digit win state was there since 1992. Colorado in many ways is like two states: the Denver/Boulder area, and then the rest of the state. Mark Udall is the incumbent Democratic Senator up for re-election and is in a tight-race, which proves that the power of the incumbency is not always guaranteed.




DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
AZ 04/2011 1007124 1142045 30256 1030500 3209925 31,38% 35,58% 0,94% 32,10% 134921 4,20% 23,01%
AZ 04/2007 858988 1019220 18612 712765 2609585 32,92% 39,06% 0,71% 27,31% 160232 6,14%
Diff: 148136 122825 11644 317735 600340 -1,54% -3,48% 0,23% 4,79% 25311 -1,94%













AZ 04/2011 1007124 1142045 30256 1030500 3209925 31,38% 35,58% 0,94% 32,10% 134921 4,20% 7,44%
AZ GE-2008 1022252 1118857 22162 824450 2987721 34,22% 37,45% 0,74% 27,59% 96605 3,23%
Diff: -15128 23188 8094 206050 222204 -2,84% -1,87% 0,20% 4,51% -38316 0,97%













AZ GE-2012 952931 1120992 27186 1023603 3124712 30,50% 35,88% 0,87% 32,76% 168061 5,38% 4,59%
AZ GE-2008 1022252 1118857 22162 824450 2987721 34,22% 37,45% 0,74% 27,59% 96605 3,23%
Diff: -69321 2135 5024 199153 136991 -3,72% -1,57% 0,13% 5,16% -71456 2,15%













AZ 10/2013 964088 1129845 31748 1099046 3224727 29,90% 35,04% 0,98% 34,08% 165757 5,14% 3,41%
AZ 10/2009 1041415 1132817 28265 915981 3118478 33,39% 36,33% 0,91% 29,37% 91402 2,93%
Diff: -77327 -2972 3483 183065 106249 -3,50% -1,29% 0,08% 4,71% -74355 2,21%













AZ 10/2013 964088 1129845 31748 1099046 3224727 29,90% 35,04% 0,98% 34,08% 165757 5,14% 3,20%
AZ GE-2012 952931 1120992 27186 1023603 3124712 30,50% 35,88% 0,87% 32,76% 168061 5,38%
Diff: 11157 8853 4562 75443 100015 -0,60% -0,84% 0,11% 1,32% 2304 -0,24%













AZ 08/2014 944665 1122723 27314 1152444 3247146 29,09% 34,58% 0,84% 35,49% 178058 5,48% 4,65%
AZ 08/2010 1001256 1119389 28728 953503 3102876 32,27% 36,08% 0,93% 30,73% 118133 3,81%
Diff: -56591 3334 -1414 198941 144270 -3,18% -1,50% -0,08% 4,76% -59925 1,68%













AZ 08/2014 944665 1122723 27314 1152444 3247146 29,09% 34,58% 0,84% 35,49% 178058 5,48% 3,92%
AZ GE-2012 952931 1120992 27186 1023603 3124712 30,50% 35,88% 0,87% 32,76% 168061 5,38%
Diff: -8266 1731 128 128841 122434 -1,40% -1,30% -0,03% 2,73% -9997 0,11%

Arizona a third example of a state where the two parties and the unaffiliated voters are relatively evenly split, but here, the GOP has more of an edge: +5.48%. The population of Arizona also continues to grow, and this is showing up in it's enrollment statistics.

AZ's electoral history is pretty much a mirror image of RI's or MA's, only stronger: from 1952 to 2012, it went for the Republican candidate 15 of 16 times. The congressional delegation from AZ is majority GOP: a GOP Governor, 2 GOP senators, but 5 of 8 representatives are Democrats (this is a reversal from 2010 to 2012). The Arizona House of Representatives (40 R – 20 D) and the Arizona Senate (21 R – 9 D), both are Republican controlled. On the presidential level, Arizona is a 15 for 16 Republican state, having gone for the GOP nominee every time since 1952, excepting 1996. But, like Colorado, it has gone from being a massive double-digit win state to a single-digit win state.



DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
CA 02/2011 7569581 5307411 802420 3507119 17186531 44,04% 30,88% 4,67% 20,41% 2262170 13,16% 9,59%
CA 02/2007 6667437 5362473 699034 2953414 15682358 42,52% 34,19% 4,46% 18,83% 1304964 8,32%
Diff: 902144 -55062 103386 553705 1504173 1,53% -3,31% 0,21% 1,57% 957206 4,84%













CA 02/2011 7569581 5307411 802420 3507119 17186531 44,04% 30,88% 4,67% 20,41% 2262170 13,16% -0,68%
CA GE-2008 7683495 5428052 747621 3444923 17304091 44,40% 31,37% 4,32% 19,91% 2255443 13,03%
Diff: -113914 -120641 54799 62196 -117560 -0,36% -0,49% 0,35% 0,50% 6727 0,13%













CA GE-2012 7966422 5356608 1102395 3820545 18245970 43,66% 29,36% 6,04% 20,94% 2609814 14,30% 5,44%
CA GE-2008 7683495 5428052 747621 3444923 17304091 44,40% 31,37% 4,32% 19,91% 2255443 13,03%
Diff: 282927 -71444 354774 375622 941879 -0,74% -2,01% 1,72% 1,03% 354371 1,27%













CA 02/2013 7932373 5225675 1131278 3766457 18055783 43,93% 28,94% 6,27% 20,86% 2706698 14,99% -1,04%
CA GE-2012 7966422 5356608 1102395 3820545 18245970 43,66% 29,36% 6,04% 20,94% 2609814 14,30%
Diff: -34049 -130933 28883 -54088 -190187 0,27% -0,42% 0,22% -0,08% 96884 0,69%













CA 02/2013 7932373 5225675 1131278 3766457 18055783 43,93% 28,94% 6,27% 20,86% 2706698 14,99% 4,16%
CA 02/2009 7716790 5397434 754706 3465345 17334275 44,52% 31,14% 4,35% 19,99% 2319356 13,38%
Diff: 215583 -171759 376572 301112 721508 -0,58% -2,20% 1,91% 0,87% 387342 1,61%













CA 06/2014 7692670 5036610 1243511 3749215 17722006 43,41% 28,42% 7,02% 21,16% 2656060 14,99% 4,39%
CA 06/2010 7553109 5228320 771852 3423750 16977031 44,49% 30,80% 4,55% 20,17% 2324789 13,69%
Diff: 139561 -191710 471659 325465 744975 -1,08% -2,38% 2,47% 0,99% 331271 1,29%













CA 06/2014 7692670 5036610 1243511 3749215 17722006 43,41% 28,42% 7,02% 21,16% 2656060 14,99% -2,87%
CA GE-2012 7966422 5356608 1102395 3820545 18245970 43,66% 29,36% 6,04% 20,94% 2609814 14,30%
Diff: -273752 -319998 141116 -71330 -523964 -0,25% -0,94% 0,97% 0,22% 46246 0,68%


I would be remiss were I to not specifically mention the largest state in the Union, CALIFORNIA. There are some similarities between CA and AZ: both have an advantage for one party and a substantial amount of unaffiliated voters, but the mix is different here: in CA, the DEM edge is currently +14.99, a major shift over 2007, 2009 and 2011. Interestingly enough, this statistic is absolutely identical to the end of 2013. And at 43.41% of the RV, CA democrats are not far from majority status. Assuming they pick up a couple of GOP and third party voters in an election, they only need less than half of the unaffiliateds to win easily, whereas in AZ the GOP needs the vast majority of unaffiliateds to win. 

CA's electoral history is much more mixed: since 1932, it has been a pretty even 11 D-10 R for each party out of 21 cycles and it has been more „battlegroundy“ than people think: in 1960, CA was first called for Kennedy and then the call was corrected the next morning (remember Florida 2000? It wasn't the first time...); Nixon won his home state by only +0.55% in 1960 and by only +3.08% in 1968. Ford barely held this state in 1976, with +1.78%. But the trend to the Democratic party could already be seen in 1984, where Ronald Reagan won his home state with a slightly less margin than his first election, which means that his own state trended away from the national pull in the middle of a major landslide election. And it was a close race between Bush 41 and Dukakis in the Golden State in 1998 (Bush +3.57%). Since 1992, however, CA has gone reliably Democratic in presidential cycles, and with no less than a +9.95% winning margin (Kerry, 2004). Obama's +24.03% margin here in 2008 is the largest for any candidate in CA since after 1936 and his 2012 re-election margin is the second largest for any candidate since after 1936. See: note below.

California's congressional delegation is overwhelmingly democratic: a Democratic Governor, 2 Democratic senators and 38 of 53 representatives. Both chambers of the California assembly are firmly in democratic hands: the California State Senate (25 D - 14 R - 1 vacancy) and the California State Legislature (their term for the State House of Representatives, 52 D - 27 R - 1I). 

CA is also a majority-minority state, like NM, HI and as TX has now become.

It should be noted that President Obama vastly outperformed his polling numbers in California in 2012. He won California by +23.09 in 2012, but the polling average was showing +15. Reason: undercalculation of the Latino vote.

Odd man out: OHIO

Ohio: 




DEMGOPINDNO AFFTotalDEM %GOP %IND %NO AFF %MarginMar %State VRGrowth rate
OH 06/201182734289453594656323520805486210,27%11,11%0,12%78,51%671930,83%OH 06/20111,51%
OH 06/20071481985130632205146764793507118,68%16,46%0,00%64,86%1756632,21%OH 06/2007
Diff:-654643-41178794651176756119791-8,41%-5,36%0,12%13,64%-2428563,05%Diff:
Info from OHIO SOS 06/15










Info from OHIO SOS 06/15
OH 06/201182734289453594656323520805486210,27%11,11%0,12%78,51%671930,83%OH 06/2011-2,31%
OH GE-20082324074145219804468660824493228,19%17,61%0,00%54,20%87187610,57%OH GE-2008
Diff:-1496732-55766394651854860-190070-17,92%-6,51%0,12%24,31%-93906911,41%Diff:
Info from OH SOS 01/02/14










Info from OH SOS 01/02/14
OH 12/201268886112374856116608136580138278,60%15,44%0,08%75,89%5486246,85%OH 12/2012-2,80%
OH GE-20082324074145219804468660824493228,19%17,61%0,00%54,20%87187610,57%OH GE-2008
Diff:-1635213-21471361161612705-231105-19,59%-2,17%0,08%21,69%-142050017,42%Diff:














OH 12/201368348712149416008580809377125298,86%15,75%0,08%75,31%5314546,89%OH 12/2013-4,12%
OH 12/20092375872143338704234615804387429,54%17,82%0,00%52,64%94248511,72%OH 12/2009
Diff:-1692385-21844660081573478-331345-20,67%-2,07%0,08%22,66%-147393918,61%Diff:


Note: these figures have not been updated yet. I have been waiting for three weeks to hear from the OH SOS.

First, when you go to the Ohio SOS website, it will be very hard for you to find any VR statistics. Ohio is the ONLY state in the Union to actually provide .txt lists of all registered voters in the state, by party affiliation, county and address. You can download the list (as .txt and import as .csv) per county or statewide, but there are so many fields that a normal EXCEL-like program cannot handle the number of delimited fields. The large list ist 1GB large! Furthermore, the lists do not contain grand totals, so I contacted the Ohio SOS office in 2011 and they sent me the data for the time frames I requested. However, the data makes no sense at all, since Ohio officially lists every new voter, regardless of which party affiliation he or she declares, as UNAFFILIATED, until he or she has voted at least once. So, the data is completely worthless for the purposes of comparison. This is the message I received in email from the OHIO SOS on January 3, 2014:

"Your email requesting voter statistics was forwarded to me for a response.  Please find attached a listing of voter numbers by party affiliation for the years 2009, 2012 and 2013.  Under Ohio law, voters do not declare a party affiliation when they register, rather they declare a political party affiliation by requesting the ballot of a political party in a partisan primary election."



In other words, the Ohio data is essentially trash and does not really reflect the partisan inclinations of it's voters. It's a shame that my home state cannot figure out how to post such easy to calculate numbers in a way that people can have access to them. Considering Ohio's importance in the Electoral College, it really is a travesty.

Ohio is currently red at the representative level: a GOP Governor, the senators split, 1D, 1R, the congressional delegation to the US HOR is strongly Republican (12 R / 4D) and at the state level, the Ohio Senate is Republican dominated (23 R / 10 D) and the Ohio House of Representatives is also Republican dominated (R 59 / D 40). And yet, Ohio chose President Obama (D) by +2.97% in 2012. It is well known that Ohio is THE quintessential swing state in the nation, having gone for the winner in every presidential election since 1896 (soon, 120 years), excepting 1944 (Dewey) and 1960 (Nixon). Ohio has never gone for a Democrat in a national election where the Republican won nationally. This makes Ohio a 28 for 30 state in terms of accuracy, and when Ohio has "erred", it has been on the Republican side.

It was first thought that the current Ohio Gubernatorial race would be a marquee race in the 2014 elections, but apparently, the wheels have fallen off of Fitzgerald's (D) campaign and it looks like incumbent Governor Kasich (R) is going to sail to an easy win in November.



General Remarks:


About some of those states with a DEM VR margin edge, but which vote overwhelmingly Republican, esp. at the Presidential level, we are seeing DEM margin shrinking and the GOP and UNAFF percentages going up. I noted this also in the 2013 report.

Example: West Virginia


DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
WV 05/2011 650032 350460 20227 195920 1216639 53,43% 28,81% 1,66% 16,10% 299572 24,62% 8,11%
WV 2006 648889 342960
133555 1125404 57,66% 30,47% 0,00% 11,87% 305929 27,18%
Diff: 1143 7500 20227 62365 91235 -4,23% -1,67% 1,66% 4,24% -6357 -2,56%













WV 05/2011 650032 350460 20227 195920 1216639 53,43% 28,81% 1,66% 16,10% 299572 24,62% 0,87%
WV GE-2008 675305 353437 16264 161111 1206117 55,99% 29,30% 1,35% 13,36% 321868 26,69%
Diff: -25273 -2977 3963 34809 10522 -2,56% -0,50% 0,31% 2,75% -22296 -2,06%













WV GE-2012 637893 354503 28250 217585 1238231 51,52% 28,63% 2,28% 17,57% 283390 22,89% 2,66%
WV GE-2008 675305 353437 16264 161111 1206117 55,99% 29,30% 1,35% 13,36% 321868 26,69%
Diff: -37412 1066 11986 56474 32114 -4,47% -0,67% 0,93% 4,21% -38478 -3,80%













WV 12/2013 614868 350716 26595 226273 1218452 50,46% 28,78% 2,18% 18,57% 264152 21,68% 1,61%
WV 12/2009 659556 347089 17228 175285 1199158 55,00% 28,94% 1,44% 14,62% 312467 26,06%
Diff: -44688 3627 9367 50988 19294 -4,54% -0,16% 0,75% 3,95% -48315 -4,38%













WV 08/2014 608972 352445 28687 233682 1223786 49,76% 28,80% 2,34% 19,10% 256527 20,96% 1,20%
WV 08/2010 656792 348089 18858 185504 1209243 54,31% 28,79% 1,56% 15,34% 308703 25,53%
Diff: -47820 4356 9829 48178 14543 -4,55% 0,01% 0,78% 3,75% -52176 -4,57%













WV 08/2014 608972 352445 28687 233682 1223786 49,76% 28,80% 2,34% 19,10% 256527 20,96% -1,17%
WV GE-2012 637893 354503 28250 217585 1238231 51,52% 28,63% 2,28% 17,57% 283390 22,89% 0,00%
Diff: -28921 -2058 437 16097 -14445 -1,76% 0,17% 0,06% 1,52% -26863 -1,92%
In 2006, 57.66% of voters in WV were registered Democrats and the DEMS enjoyed a +27.18% VR edge over the GOP. Now, it is 49.76% DEM and a +20.96% edge in a state that Romney carried by a whalloping +26.69% in 2012.  


In the 2013 report, I wrote: "I bet that by 2016, this will no longer be a DEM majority registration state, for the DEMS in that state are very Conservative DEMS who tend to align themselves with the GOP on many issues."

And already, in 2014, the DEMS are just slightly under pure majority status, but rounded to 50%, it still looks like it. I bet that by 2016, the DEMS will be under 49% in this state in terms of VT.

Also, Oklahoma:


DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
OK 01/2011 999943 849332 0 240855 2090130 47,84% 40,64% 0,00% 11,52% 150611 7,21% 0,70%
OK 01/2007 1045490 805607 0 224464 2075561 50,37% 38,81% 0,00% 10,81% 239883 11,56%
Diff: -45547 43725 0 16391 14569 -2,53% 1,82% 0,00% 0,71% -89272 -4,35%













OK 01/2011 999943 849332 0 240855 2090130 47,84% 40,64% 0,00% 11,52% 150611 7,21% -4,30%
OK GE-2008 1077616 860378 0 246002 2183996 49,34% 39,39% 0,00% 11,26% 217238 9,95%
Diff: -77673 -11046 0 -5147 -93866 -1,50% 1,24% 0,00% 0,26% -66627 -2,74%













OK 01/2013 962072 897663 0 256450 2116185 45,46% 42,42% 0,00% 12,12% 64409 3,04% -3,10%
OK 01/2009 1077616 860378 0 246002 2183996 49,34% 39,39% 0,00% 11,26% 217238 9,95%
Diff: -115544 37285 0 10448 -67811 -3,88% 3,02% 0,00% 0,85% -152829 -6,90%













OK 01/2014 885609 854329 4 238870 1978812 44,75% 43,17% 0,00% 12,07% 31280 1,58% -2,93%
OK 01/2010 999855 813158 0 225607 2038620 49,05% 39,89% 0,00% 11,07% 186697 9,16%
Diff: -114246 41171 4 13263 -59808 -4,29% 3,29% 0,00% 1,00% -155417 -7,58%













OK 01/2014 885609 854329 4 238870 1978812 44,75% 43,17% 0,00% 12,07% 31280 1,58% -9,39%
OK 01/2009 1077616 860378 0 246002 2183996 49,34% 39,39% 0,00% 11,26% 217238 9,95%
Diff: -192007 -6049 4 -7132 -205184 -4,59% 3,78% 0,00% 0,81% -185958 -8,37%

In 2007, Oklahoma was a DEM majority state in terms of VR and the DEMs had a +11.56% VR edge. It is now a DEM plurality state with only a +1.58% DEM edge in a state that has voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 cycles and more often than not, by a +30 margin or larger.


The "unaffiliateds":

Of the 31 "states" that do VR by partisan breakdown, in 2014 compared to 2010 (and also compared to 2012, but only for beauty contest reasons), the unaffiliated percentage of voters has risen between 2-3% in most every state. This means it is a very uniform rise in most parts of the county, except in the Northeast/Acela states. 

Example: 

In Arizona, unaffiliateds have risen almost 5 points over 2010. But in Delaware, they have risen only 0.8 points over 2010. 

In Nevada, unaffiliateds have risen 3.4 points over 2010, but Maine has seen the unaffiliateds rise only 0.70% over 2010.  

In North Carolina, South Dakota and Colorado, the unaffiliateds rose 3.6, 3.7 and 3.8 points over 2010, respectively, but in DC, the unaffiliateds rose by only 0.3. In a mirror image of that, in Connecticut, they decreased by 0.3 points.

In fact, there was negative growth in the unaffiliated vote in only 4 states:

Connecticut, Kentucky, Maryland, Utah and Wyoming.

Utah is the most extreme example, at -8.39 points for the unaffiliateds, over 2009, not 2010. But Utah just started to provide such data in 2012, we have no idea what the data-line looked like before that.

Maryland is the more prominent example, at -4.5 over 2010, but a long line of VR statistics to look at. Maryland is also one of the few states where the DEM VR edge has considerably RISEN since both 2010 and 2012.

To see how your state did, just look at the excel table that is linked at the top of this report.


One interesting statistical shift (but barely):

New Hampshire, like Colorado and Iowa, is a state where the two major parties are pretty even with each other and the unaffiliateds control who wins. Generally, the GOP has a slight R vs. D edge in this state, but for a short while in 2010, the D's actually had the edge and so, there is a slight statistical shift from 2010 to 2014 (but not from 2012 to 2014):


DEM GOP IND NO AFF Total DEM % GOP % IND % NO AFF % Margin Mar % Growth rate
NH 03/2011 264110 272738 0 392352 929200 28,42% 29,35% 0,00% 42,22% 8628 0,93% 7,33%
NH 06/2008 264405 269393 0 331948 865746 30,54% 31,12% 0,00% 38,34% 4988 0,58%
Diff: -295 3345 0 60404 63454 -2,12% -1,76% 0,00% 3,88% -3640 0,35%













NH 03/2011 264110 272738 0 392352 929200 28,42% 29,35% 0,00% 42,22% 8628 0,93% 7,60%
NH GE-2008 263217 268108 0 332217 863542 30,48% 31,05% 0,00% 38,47% 4891 0,57%
Diff: 893 4630 0 60135 65658 -2,06% -1,70% 0,00% 3,75% -3737 0,36%













NH GE-2012 250358 273675 0 381924 905957 27,63% 30,21% 0,00% 42,16% 23317 2,57% 4,91%
NH GE-2008 263217 268108 0 332217 863542 30,48% 31,05% 0,00% 38,47% 4891 0,57%
Diff: -12859 5567 0 49707 42415 -2,85% -0,84% 0,00% 3,69% -18426 2,01%













NH 03/2013 239959 265348 0 372340 877647 27,34% 30,23% 0,00% 42,42% 25389 2,89% -5,04%
NH 11/2009 270316 268716 0 385222 924254 29,25% 29,07% 0,00% 41,68% -1600 -0,17%
Diff: -30357 -3368 0 -12882 -46607 -1,91% 1,16% 0,00% 0,75% -26989 3,07%













NH 01/2014 236774 261846 0 372009 870629 27,20% 30,08% 0,00% 42,73% 25072 2,88% -5,57%
NH 05/2010 267725 266077 0 388220 922022 29,04% 28,86% 0,00% 42,11% 1648 0,18%
Diff: -30951 -4231 0 -16211 -51393 -1,84% 1,22% 0,00% 0,62% -26720 3,06%













NH 01/2014 236774 261846 0 372009 870629 27,20% 30,08% 0,00% 42,73% 25072 2,88% -3,90%
NH GE-2012 250358 273675 0 381924 905957 27,63% 30,21% 0,00% 42,16% 23317 2,57%
Diff: -13584 -11829 0 -9915 -35328 -0,44% -0,13% 0,00% 0,57% -1755 0,31%

NH did not publish data for 01/2010, so I cannot make an exact 1:1 comparison, but the D's had a razor-thin edge in 2010 and now in 2014, the R's have an edge. This is the only state in the Union to show this shift, and it is minor as the unaffiliateds still control the action.

I want to praise some states for excellent publishing of VR statistics:

Lousiana has an excellent graphical interface at it's website and all of the most pertinent data is there at one click.

Rhode Island has now added an archive of VR stats, which it did not have in 2011.

Pennsylvania allows a download of a large .xls document that shows exact VR changes (add ins, drop outs, party switches) on pretty much a weekly basis.

Alaska calls each one of it's pages with such information a "card". The database is totally easy to access, by preferred date. Ditto North Carolina, which also includes (almost) daily totals right at the top of it's SOS page.

Utah joined the fray with VR stats by partisan breakdown as of 2012 and is planning to build an archive as well. It is the Lt. Governor's office in Utah that handles this stuff and the staff was very, very helpful to me!

Likewise, Massachusetts has now added a large database called "PD43" and plans to add VR data to it as well, something I learned in a very friendly email exchange with the MA SOS people.

Florida provides all statistics and also a PIE GRAPH of the most current stuff. California does something similar. This makes getting the information very easy.

New Mexico and Nevada both provide excellent archives to research.

Colorado's archive (plus current data) is the most concise of all and probably the easiest on the eyes.

Other states are somewhat more sparing in their method of getting VR data out there, but I have noticed a big uptick in improvement of their websites since 2011.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: there is actually very little substantive change in VR throughout the Union when you compare it to four years ago. There are no states where members of one party or the other have come out in droves to register, thus changing the balance of that state, at least in the 31 "states" that publish VR by party affiliation.

Therefore, it would be a fatal flaw to try to read tea-leaves from this data and divine which party wins the mid-terms. As is always that case, voter turnout and attractivity to the so-called unaffiliated voters is what wins elections.