07 March 2012

OHIO'S 100-year direct Primary history

OHIO PRIMARY HISTORY


The Buckeye state has a 100 year tradition of primaries. Here some hard facts:


From 1988 through 2008, Ohio has picked the eventual nominee in both parties, but before 1988, it was an incredibly mixed bag. From 1912-1984, Ohio often picked "favorite son" candidates and went against the grain, for instance, all of the GOP primaries from 1932-1968, excepting Nixon in 1960. On the Democratic side, Michael DiSalle won in 1960.


Since 1972, all but two (1972 and 1984 DEM primaries) of the primaries have been solid or large landslide wins. From 1988-2004, they were all been landslide wins of +18 of more. On the Republican side, from 1932 up till 2012, they were ALL landslide wins.


Mitt Romney's 38.0% of the PV and his +1.0% margin win over Rick Santorum in 2012 is the smallest winning percentage and the leanest winning margin for any candidate of any party in Ohio's primary history. Ever.


All of the data I could find from 1912-2012 is in the table below, the years are hyperlinked. You may enjoy reading some very interesting names, many with fascinating histories.


Legend: the greyed areas indicate the years and party primary where the state did not go with the eventual nominee.


Year
DEM winner
DEM nominee
Year
GOP winner
GOP nominee
---
---
Roosevelt - 55%
Taft - 40%
Taft
Cox - 98%
Cox
Harding - 47%
Wood - 41%
Harding
1932
---
---
Coxley, Jacob - 94%
Hoover - 6%
Hoover
1940
---
---
Taft - 98%
Willkie
1948
Truman - NA
Truman
1948
Taft - 57%
Stassen - 43%
Dewey
Kefauver - N/A
Russell- N/A
Stevenson
Taft - 79%
Stassen - 21%
Eisenhower
Stevenson - N/A
Kefauver - N/A
Stevenson
(Kefauver was VP nominee)
Bricker - 100%
Eisenhower
DiSalle, Michael- 60%
uncommitted - 40%
JFK
Nixon - 70%
Bender - 30%
Nixon
LBJ - unopposed
LBJ
Rhodes, James- 100%
Goldwater
Young, Steven - 100%
Humphrey
Rhodes, James- 100%
Nixon
Humphrey - 41.3%
McGovern - 39.7%
Muskie - 8.8%
Jackson, Scoop - 8.2%
McCarthy - 2.1%
McGovern
Nixon - 100%
(unopposed, but on ballot)
Nixon
Carter - 52%
Udall - 21%
Church - 14%
Wallace - 6%
Jackson, Scoop - 3%
Carter
Ford - 55%
Reagan - 45%
Ford
Carter - 51.1%
Kennedy - 44.2%
LaRouche - 2.9%
Kay - 1.8%
Carter
Reagan - 81%
Bush, Sr. - 19%
Reagan
Hart - 42%
Mondale - 40%
Jackson - 16%
McGovern - 1%
Mondale
1984
Reagan - unopposed
Reagan
Dukakis - 62.8%
Jackson - 27.4%
Gore - 2.2%
Traficant - 2.2%
Hart - 2.0%
Applegate - 1.8%
others - 1.6%
Dukakis
Bush, Sr. - 81%
Dole - 12%
Robertson - 7.0%

Bush, Sr.
Clinton - 61.3%
Brown - 18.9%
Tsongas - 10.6%
Stokes - 2.9%
Harkin - 2.4%
Kerrey - 2.2%
LaRouche- 1.7%
Clinton
Bush, Sr. - 81.8%
Buchanan - 18.2%
Bush, Sr.
1996
Clinton - unopposed
Clinton
Dole - 66.5%
Buchanan - 21.6%
Forbes - 6.0%
Keyes - 2.8%
Alexander - 2%
Lugar - 1%
Dole
Gore - 64.5%
Bradley - 25.9%
LaRouche - 1.6%
Gore
Bush, Jr. - 58.0%
McCain - 37.0%
Keyes - 4.0%
Forbes - 0.6%
Gary Bauer - 0.4%
Bush, Jr.
Kerry - 51.8%
Edwards - 34.8%
Kucinich - 9%
Dean - 2.5%
Liebrman - 1.2%
Clark - 1.0%
LaRouche - 0.3%
Kerry
2004
Bush, Jr. - unopposed
Bush, Jr.
Clinton - 53.5%
Obama - 44.8%
Edwards - 1.7%


Obama
McCain - 59.9%
Huckabee - 30.6%
Paul - 4.6%
Romney- 13.3%
Thompson - 1.6%
McCain
2012
Obama - unopposed
Obama
2012
Romney - 38.0%
Santorum - 37.0%
Gingrich - 14.6%
Paul - 11.0%
???




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